The American military — still skeptical about whether the U.S. should have gone to war in Iraq, and still skeptical of President Bush’s war leadership — nevertheless shows increasing optimism about the likelihood of success in the war, this year’s Military Times Poll shows.

Sixty-two percent of active-duty respondents expressed some degree of optimism that the U.S. will succeed in Iraq , up from just 50 percent last year. At their peak of optimism in 2004, 83 percent said they thought success in Iraq was likely.

Though the troops are more optimistic about success, they are resigned to a long haul. The percentage of those who say we’ll need to stay in Iraq more than 10 years is at 37 percent, up considerably from last year’s 23 percent.

But while there appears to be growing optimism, the military’s view of presidential leadership remains doubtful. When asked if they approved or disapproved of how Bush is handling the war in Iraq , 40 percent said they approved, 38 percent said they disapproved and the rest either said they had no opinion or declined to answer. Those ratings are only marginally better than last year, when the president’s approval among the military plummeted from a high of 63 percent in 2004.

Similarly, in 2003 nearly two-thirds said we should have gone to war in Iraq ; today only 46 percent feel that way. Again, that is only marginally better than last year, when 41 said we should have gone to war in Iraq . By comparison, 80 percent said we should have gone to war in Afghan­istan , and 77 percent think the U.S. will be successful there. But even there the president’s war management fails to get majority support — only 47 percent approve of his handling of Afghanistan .

And the troops, staunchly Republican and staunchly conservative, are increasingly skeptical about how well Bush handles presidential duties overall. Only 48 percent approve; 34 percent disapprove.

The poll is the fifth annual gauge of active-duty subscribers to the Military Times papers. The results should not be read as representative of the military as a whole; the survey’s respondents are, on average, older, more experienced, more likely to be officers and more career-oriented than the overall military population.

Still, the poll has come to be viewed by some as a barometer of the professional career military. It is the only independent poll done on an annual basis.

This year’s poll was conducted by e-mail during the week of Dec. 10-17, with 1,468 active-duty people responding. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The military audience responding to the poll is a war-hardened group. Three-quarters have done at least one combat tour. One-third have done two or more tours in Iraq . A quarter have done at least one Afghanistan tour.

And at the time of the poll, 24 percent of those responding were in a combat zone.

The operational tempo of the audience is high. Of those who have done at least two combat tours, 27 percent said they had less than a year between tours.

But despite the combat deployments, the military remains a largely satisfied group. Just under 80 percent said they were somewhat or completely satisfied with their jobs. The same percentage would recommend a military career to others and 70 percent would support a child’s decision to enlist. Two-thirds would re-enlist or extend their commitment if they had to decide today.

Those numbers remain largely unchanged during the past five years.

And despite the strains on the all-volunteer force and the difficulty in retaining and recruiting adequate numbers of troops, this career-oriented group still overwhelmingly opposes a draft. Two-thirds oppose drafting men and three-quarters oppose drafting women.

While the president’s approval rating among the troops has weakened, it is still far better than among the general population. Last August, when Gallup asked, only 27 percent of civilians approved of the way the president is handling the war, compared to 40 percent in the military sample.

David Segal, a sociology professor and director of the Center for Research on Military Organization at the University of Maryland , said the growing optimism about the war’s outcome “is a reflection of the way broader society views the war.”

A Gallup poll at the start of this month showed a steady increase since last spring in the public’s belief that the U.S. will win in Iraq . Many attribute that growing optimism to the surge of U.S. troops in Iraq . In that poll, 39 percent said victory is likely. And while that is up from a low of 28 percent last March, it is still far below the comparatively optimistic outlook the military has.

And there is still a huge gap between civilians and service members about whether the U.S. should have gone to war in Iraq in the first place. While only 34 percent of the military said the U.S. should not have gone to war in Iraq , that number was 57 percent in the Gallup poll of broader society.

Segal said that difference wasn’t surprising. People in the military, he said, “are basically in favor of using the military as an instrument of foreign policy.”

DISCUSS: The poll results