But there are also hints in the results that the wave of good feeling may have crested.

Job satisfaction remains high: 85 percent say they are at least somewhat satisfied with their job, similar to responses in 2003 and 2004. More than four out of five say they would recommend a military career to others, and about three out of four say they would support their child’s decision to seek a military career.

In follow-up interviews, poll respondents drew a direct connection between mission and morale.

“I think the majority of guys who are getting the chance to go over there are seeing the good we’re doing over there and that we’re doing something important,” said Marine Staff Sgt. Justin Fagala. “To actually be able to go out and do your job has a certain degree of satisfaction to it.”

Army Staff Sgt. Chris Lane, a drill sergeant at Fort Bliss, Texas, said soldiers appreciate putting their skills to use. Training without a mission, he said, is “like having a CPA [degree] and never getting to be an accountant.”

But there may be warning signs in some of the numbers. Seventy percent say they would extend their service commitment if they had to decide immediately — a figure that remains high, at least in part, because respondents average nearly 15 years of service, nearing retirement eligibility. Even so, that figure is down five points from a year ago, and the number saying they are unsure has more than doubled, though it’s still only 11 percent.

And enthusiasm for many aspects of military life has slipped somewhat, though it remains high. Thirteen percent, for example, rate their pay and allowances as excellent; that’s down nine points in the last two years. Nine out of ten 10 agree with the statement that they are well trained, but the number who strongly agree has fallen from 45 percent last year to 37 percent now.

Perhaps most important, 22 percent rated their military quality of life as excellent, down seven points from a year ago and 11 points from 2003.

Experts said it is far too early to tell whether those small shifts could indicate a decline in military morale that many have feared under the weight of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“I like what I do,” said Air Force Tech. Sgt. Anthony D. Whitehead, a crew chief on KC-10 Extender airborne tankers at McGuire Air Force Base, N.J. “But with the manning and operations, it gets more difficult to do the job.”

“I don’t think it’s just random noise, but I would be very slow to predict a trend from those data,” said David Segal, a military sociologist at the University of Maryland.

Richard Kohn of the University of North Carolina said taking an accurate snapshot of morale is difficult because military members are likely, by culture and temperament, to believe high morale is essential in wartime.